Fisher Capital Management Warning: Standard Life Issues Inflation Warning

http://www.whatinvestment.co.uk/pensions/annuities/1630438/standard-life-issues-inflation-warning.thtml

Joe McGrath, 14 June 2011

Investors buying a level annuity with a pension pot of £80,000 will spend their entire monthly income on basic living costs within seven years of retirement, according to new statistics.

Standard Life researchers have warned that many people could see their retirement income consumed by the basic costs of living as the effect of inflation eats into the money they set aside for retirement.

The FTSE 100 company’s retirement team today warned that investors to take financial advice or risk losing out from inflation restricting living standards in the future.

John Lawson, head of pensions policy at Standard Life, said the cost of living is rising fast for most people in the UK, but this can be particularly acute for pensioners.

He explained, ‘Their spending habits are driven by commodities such as food and fuel bills and these inflation rates are much higher than the overall UK inflation rate.

‘People need to consider how to protect their buying power in retirement from the ravages of inflation over a long period of time, which could be 30 years or more.

‘If pensioner inflation remains at around 6 per cent a year, people with a fixed income could lose almost half of their spending power within a ten year period.

‘There are many options to consider at retirement which could minimise the impact of inflation on your income, so seeking professional financial advice is vital.’

Fisher Capital management Warning: Investors Take Warning: Storm Clouds Gathering

http://www.moneytalksnews.com/2011/06/10/stock-investors-storm-clouds/

Since the market lows of March 2009, the stock market has been all blue skies and sunshine. Now the storm clouds are starting to gather. Is the party over?

By Stacy Johnson

As parties go, this one’s been raging for quite a while. After dipping below 6,600 just two short years ago, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has now nearly doubled.

If you were fortunate enough to invest in stocks near the market bottom – and if you bought the right stocks – you’ve made a killing. (Take a look at my personal portfolio and you’ll see what I mean.)

But that’s history. If you don’t own stocks, stock mutual funds, or ETFs, is now the time to buy? And if you were lucky (or smart) enough to pull the trigger back in 2009, is it time to sell and protect your profits and/or your principal?

The answer to both questions is no. Back on March 11, in this Ask Stacy column, I said the market wasn’t looking good and that I’d be reluctant to buy in the immediate future. But I also believe that the economy will continue to recover, so there’s no reason to bail either. In short, this is one of those times when the long-term investor adjusts their expectations – but not their portfolio.

Trouble ahead?

When I say adjust your expectations, what I mean is brace for some short-term bruising. Here are a few economic headwinds around these days…

• The end of QE2: The government’s second program to keep interest rates low – known as quantitative easing, or QE – is set to end in June. This program, through which the Federal Reserve has been buying about $75 billion in treasury bonds weekly, is designed to keep interest rates low. When the buying stops, some say rates could rise and stocks could fall. Here’s an article from U.S. News & World Report with more details.
• Job growth is slowing: After last week’s announcement that only 54,000 jobs were created in May, economists are fretting that consumer spending will slow. Since consumer spending makes up 70 percent of the U.S. economy, that’s a potential drag on stocks.
• Political wrangling over the debt ceiling. As I wrote a couple of weeks ago, our nation is now bumping up against its credit limits. Some think refusing to increase the government’s ability to borrowisn’t that big a deal, while others think failing to raise the debt ceiling would be catastrophic. But one thing’s for sure: Stocks won’t respond well if the government is unable to meet all of its obligations when the limit is reached on August 2.
• High gas prices: Money you spend on gas helps the Middle East and big oil companies but doesn’t help the American economy.
• Housing prices: Home prices nationwide are now at their lowest since 2002. According to this AP article, homeowners have now lost more equity than during the Great Depression of the 1930s – back then, it took 19 years for prices to recover. If folks are afraid to buy or can’t sell, that’s another drag on the economy.
• The European debt crisis: It may not seem that Greece’s problems could affect us, but with the increasingly global economy, when Europe sneezes, U.S. markets could catch a cold. Recently, Standard & Poor’s cut Greek government debt to junk status, and stocks worldwide took a hit.
• Emerging market slowdown: While our economy has been sputtering, emerging economies in Asia and elsewhere – most notably, China – have been going gangbusters. But the Chinese government recently raised interest rates and took other measures to keep their economy from overheating – a negative for the many U.S. companies that do business there. According to this recent CNN/Money article, “It goes without saying that a healthy Chinese economy is key to keeping the U.S. and global recovery on track.”

Those are some of the problems that stocks are currently facing, and they’re reason enough to be concerned about the short-term. But as I said earlier, while these concerns are enough to keep me on the sidelines, they’re not enough to chase me out of the stock market. Why haven’t I sold a single share?

The good stuff

• Interest rates are still low: Although the Fed’s QE2 program will end soon, the Fed has signaled they’re not concerned about inflation and will keep interest rates low until they’re sure the economy is growing again. Low interest rates are good for stocks.
• The economy is still growing: While only 54,000 jobs were added during May – a number far below estimates – jobs were still added and the economy is still growing. An economy that’s growing at a snail’s pace isn’t the same as one that’s shrinking. In a speech this week, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said, “The economic recovery appears to be continuing at a moderate pace, albeit at a rate that is both uneven across sectors and frustratingly slow from the perspective of millions of unemployed.”
• Gas prices are coming down: At a national average of $3.76/gallon, prices are already down from a few weeks ago. From this May 7 AP article: “It’s going to be $3.50 per gallon this summer,” oil analyst Andrew Lipow said. “At the very least, you can expect prices to fall 40 cents or so over the next several months.”
• Emerging markets are still growing: As I mentioned above, China is putting the brakes on its economy. But China’s economy is still expected to grow close to 10 percent this year. That’s a huge number.
• The debt crisis will be dealt with: While politicians may take it down to the wire, they’ll probably approve an increase in our nation’s debt ceiling. And while the process of dealing with our massive budget deficit won’t be pretty, it’s a lot better for the country and the stock market than ignoring it.

In a January story called 3 Places to Put Money Now, I suggested putting money into stocks, real estate, and paying off debt. While paying off debt is always a great place to put money, my assumption regarding real estate was almost certainly too optimistic – at this point it looks highly improbable that housing prices will begin any sort of a turnaround this year. As for stocks, while the jury is still out, I’m concerned: I wasn’t expecting this degree of slowdown. But I’m still not throwing in the towel – yet.

Bottom line? Expect tough sailing in the immediate future and keep your eye on the news. If our economic recovery continues to falter, that’s going to be reflected as lower stock prices. Long-term, however, I’m still looking for stocks to do well. So if you’re putting money monthly into stock mutual funds at work or elsewhere, don’t stop. But don’t expect any easy money for the next few months.

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Fisher Capital Management Corporate News: Facebook Stirs Privacy Ire With Facial Recognition

http://www.thenational.ae/business/markets/warning-of-unrest-as-trouble-grows-in-india

Anuj Chopra

Jun 17, 2011

MUMBAI // Not so long ago, India was on the verge of double-digit growth. But ambitions of becoming an economic superpower are on hold as fears of a slowdown loom.

Economic troubles:Storm clouds gather across the world.

Last Updated: June 17, 2011

Billions wiped off global stocks Trading screens across the world flash red as sharp sell-offs take place everywhere. Read article

In the Gulf UAE debt sales set to boost the Middle East Read article

In Europe Spectre of Greek default loomsRead article

In Japan Disasters look set to leave country stuck at zero Read article

In the US Politicians in economic theatre of battle Read article

In China Curbing inflation is a balancing actRead article

BACK TO BUSINESS

The economy expanded at 7.8 per cent in the first quarter of the year – the slowest pace in five quarters.

Yesterday, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raised key interest rates for the 10th time since March last year, despite warnings by analysts that high interest rates could dent the main drivers of economic growth: domestic consumption and investment.

Signs of trouble are already visible. Last year, foreign direct investment in India fell 32 per cent from 2009 to US$24 billion (Dh88.15bn). The rate of investments in India plunged to 0.4 per cent in the January to March period compared with 20 per cent in the same period last year. Industrial production slowed to 6.3 per cent in April from 8.8 per cent in March.

D Subbarao, the governor of the RBI, said the interest rate rises were warranted to deal with rising inflation, which Credit Suisse bank called India’s “horror show”.

Inflation increased to 9.06 per cent in May compared with 8.66 per cent in April. But policy analysts say raising interest rates incessantly is akin to pressing the brake pedal and the accelerator at the same time.

“The slowdown has been due to a near collapse in the investment cycle,” says Rohini Malkani, an economist with the investment bank Citi India. “Higher rates could take a toll on investments and consumption.”

Aggressive monetary tightening threatens to destabilise the growth of the industrial sector, which the country heavily relies on to absorb the millions of people entering the workforce every year. Such action could spark widespread social unrest, Udayan Bose, the chairman of India’s employer association’s corporate finance committee, warned in a letter this week to Mr Subbarao.

business@thenational.ae

Fisher Capital Management Investment: Warning of unrest as trouble grows in India

http://www.thenational.ae/business/markets/warning-of-unrest-as-trouble-grows-in-india

Anuj Chopra

Jun 17, 2011

MUMBAI // Not so long ago, India was on the verge of double-digit growth. But ambitions of becoming an economic superpower are on hold as fears of a slowdown loom.

Economic troubles:Storm clouds gather across the world.

Last Updated: June 17, 2011

Billions wiped off global stocks Trading screens across the world flash red as sharp sell-offs take place everywhere. Read article

In the Gulf UAE debt sales set to boost the Middle East Read article

In Europe Spectre of Greek default loomsRead article

In Japan Disasters look set to leave country stuck at zero Read article

In the US Politicians in economic theatre of battle Read article

In China Curbing inflation is a balancing actRead article

BACK TO BUSINESS

The economy expanded at 7.8 per cent in the first quarter of the year – the slowest pace in five quarters.

Yesterday, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raised key interest rates for the 10th time since March last year, despite warnings by analysts that high interest rates could dent the main drivers of economic growth: domestic consumption and investment.

Signs of trouble are already visible. Last year, foreign direct investment in India fell 32 per cent from 2009 to US$24 billion (Dh88.15bn). The rate of investments in India plunged to 0.4 per cent in the January to March period compared with 20 per cent in the same period last year. Industrial production slowed to 6.3 per cent in April from 8.8 per cent in March.

D Subbarao, the governor of the RBI, said the interest rate rises were warranted to deal with rising inflation, which Credit Suisse bank called India’s “horror show”.

Inflation increased to 9.06 per cent in May compared with 8.66 per cent in April. But policy analysts say raising interest rates incessantly is akin to pressing the brake pedal and the accelerator at the same time.

“The slowdown has been due to a near collapse in the investment cycle,” says Rohini Malkani, an economist with the investment bank Citi India. “Higher rates could take a toll on investments and consumption.”

Aggressive monetary tightening threatens to destabilise the growth of the industrial sector, which the country heavily relies on to absorb the millions of people entering the workforce every year. Such action could spark widespread social unrest, Udayan Bose, the chairman of India’s employer association’s corporate finance committee, warned in a letter this week to Mr Subbarao.

business@thenational.ae

Fisher Capital Management Corporate News

http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0615/us.html



Updated: 17:18, Wednesday, 15 June 2011

The head of the US central bank has said America’s creditworthiness is at risk if the country’s borrowing limit is not raised.



Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has urged Republican members of Congress to vote in favour of lifting the borrowing level from its current $14.3 trillion threshold.

‘I fully understand the desire to use the debt limit deadline to force some necessary and difficult fiscal policy adjustments, but the debt limit is the wrong tool for that important job,’ Mr Bernanke said in a speech in Washington.

The Fed Chair said in the absence of a quick resolution to the battle over the debt limit, the US could lose its prized AAA credit rating, while the dollar’s special status as a reserve currency might be damaged.

Mr Bernanke said that putting in place sustainable fiscal policies was a ‘daunting’ challenge ‘crucial for our nation.’

‘History makes clear that failure to put our fiscal house in order will erode the vitality of our economy, reduce the standard of living in the United States, and increase the risk of economic and financial instability.’

However, he said, ‘In debating critical fiscal issues, we should avoid unnecessary actions or threats that risk shaking the confidence of investors in the ability and willingness of the US government to pay its bills.’

US President Barack Obama yesterday warned of a new economic meltdown if the ceiling is not lifted in time.

‘We could actually have a reprise of a financial crisis, if we play this too close to the line,’ Mr Obama told NBC television.

‘We’re going (to) be working hard over the next month. My expectation is we’re going (to) get it done in a sensible way. That’s what the American people expect.’

If agreement is not reached by a deadline in early August, the US could start defaulting on its obligations.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has warned that failure to raise the borrowing cap by 2 August will trigger turmoil in the bond markets and economic ‘catastrophe’.

He met with Republican and Democratic politicians to try to find an exit to the impasse.

Fisher Capital Management Investment

http://www.thenational.ae/business/markets/warning-of-unrest-as-trouble-grows-in-india

Anuj Chopra

Jun 17, 2011

MUMBAI // Not so long ago, India was on the verge of double-digit growth. But ambitions of becoming an economic superpower are on hold as fears of a slowdown loom.

Economic troubles:Storm clouds gather across the world.

Last Updated: June 17, 2011

Billions wiped off global stocks Trading screens across the world flash red as sharp sell-offs take place everywhere. Read article

In the Gulf UAE debt sales set to boost the Middle East Read article

In Europe Spectre of Greek default loomsRead article

In Japan Disasters look set to leave country stuck at zero Read article

In the US Politicians in economic theatre of battle Read article

In China Curbing inflation is a balancing actRead article

BACK TO BUSINESS

The economy expanded at 7.8 per cent in the first quarter of the year – the slowest pace in five quarters.

Yesterday, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raised key interest rates for the 10th time since March last year, despite warnings by analysts that high interest rates could dent the main drivers of economic growth: domestic consumption and investment.

Signs of trouble are already visible. Last year, foreign direct investment in India fell 32 per cent from 2009 to US$24 billion (Dh88.15bn). The rate of investments in India plunged to 0.4 per cent in the January to March period compared with 20 per cent in the same period last year. Industrial production slowed to 6.3 per cent in April from 8.8 per cent in March.

D Subbarao, the governor of the RBI, said the interest rate rises were warranted to deal with rising inflation, which Credit Suisse bank called India’s “horror show”.

Inflation increased to 9.06 per cent in May compared with 8.66 per cent in April. But policy analysts say raising interest rates incessantly is akin to pressing the brake pedal and the accelerator at the same time.

“The slowdown has been due to a near collapse in the investment cycle,” says Rohini Malkani, an economist with the investment bank Citi India. “Higher rates could take a toll on investments and consumption.”

Aggressive monetary tightening threatens to destabilise the growth of the industrial sector, which the country heavily relies on to absorb the millions of people entering the workforce every year. Such action could spark widespread social unrest, Udayan Bose, the chairman of India’s employer association’s corporate finance committee, warned in a letter this week to Mr Subbarao.

business@thenational.ae